Our latest instalment on 'Changing Britain?' looks at ageing trends in the church and what we can do about them. Following the statistics is a comment from Monica Hill.

The Ageing Church

Re-printed from Brierley Consultancy's FutureFirst, June 2014 issue, with kind permission.¹

The latest (2011) Population Census confirmed what has been known for some time – British society is ageing. A fifth, 22.3%, were 60 years of age or over in 2011, and this percentage has increased by 1.4% in 10 years.

The basic reason for this increasing proportion of older people is that the population is not being balanced by an increasing proportion of younger people. In 2001 the proportion of the population under 20 was 25%; in 2011 it was 24% - a small percentage difference but quite large in real terms. Projections by the Office for National Statistics paint the same trend for the decades ahead.²

An age crisis is not likely to descend in the short term, partly because of the continuing numbers of relatively young immigrants who come to the UK, and partly because the number of babies being born to this group (Total Fertility Rate, TFR) is relatively high. The population balances if the TFR = 2.1; in recent years in Britain it has been 1.9, but in years gone by it has been much lower, such as 1.7 in 1996.³

Greying Europe

This ageing problem is spread across not just Britain but most of the world. Women in the Southern World are wanting fewer children, and contraceptives are becoming more widely available and affordable. In Europe, where abortion is more of a factor, the overall TFR averaged 1.5 between 2005 and 2010.⁴ In Poland it was just 1.2, and 1.3 in Germany, Greece, Italy and 8 other European countries.⁵

These downward trends could take 80-100 years to adjust, hence the importance of immigration for these countries. Meanwhile, an increased proportion of elderly people increases demand for medical care, whilst decreasing income tax revenue to pay for it. According to Jerome Vignon, Director of the EEC's Directorate for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities, this trend will affect almost every aspect of life, from consumption to family life to public policy.⁶

Ageing Church?Figure 1: Sunday Church attendance in England by age group 1980 – 2010 and estimated to 2025.

Whilst systematic data is not yet available, it is likely that the church in Britain is caught up with this broader ageing process. This paper focuses on statistics available for England from the four Church Censuses, as England represents the major demographic component of the UK. Figure 1 illustrates numbers of churchgoers by age-group, from 1980 and projected to 2025, using figures from UK Church Statistics.⁷

It is obvious, even to the casual observer of the world scene, that the English church has an ageing problem, and this is a much more acute one than that facing the demographers across Europe! This is because the number of young people in church is decreasing rapidly – there has been a 43% drop in those under 20 between 1980 and 2000, and a projected 45% drop between 2000 and 2020.

Consequently, the proportion of those at the other end of the scale is increasing – and gathering momentum. More than 1/3 of churchgoers in 2015 are 65 or over, and this is likely to increase to 42% by 2025.

Third, Fourth and Fifth Agers

Churchgoers aged 65 and over can be sub-divided into three groups: the Third Agers (65-74), Fourth Agers (75-84) and Fifth Agers (85+). These groups differ markedly in health, ability, availability and outlook.

1. The largest cohort of churchgoers is currently the Third Agers (65-74), who generally enjoy strong health, high energy levels, large pensions and money to spend on pleasure and leisure. However, whilst they have long made up the largest group of church attendees, this group is neither growing nor shrinking at an obvious rate.
2. By contrast, total numbers of Fourth Agers are on the increase (+16% 2000-2020, then +19% 2020-2025). They are usually grandparents, may have lost a spouse and may need help getting to church.
3. Numbers of churchgoers in their Fifth Age increased almost 4-fold in this period, from 47,000 in 2000 to over 170,000 by 2025 (+264%). They are often confined to the home, experiencing an increasing dependency and only attend church on special occasions.

This is gradually changing the demographics of the 65+ age group in church. The proportion of those attending in their Third Age is dropping – from 62% in 2000 to 48% in 2025 - and that of those in their Fifth Age is projected to increase from 6% to 16% in the same time.

Implications for Church Leaders

As the 'greying' of the church gathers momentum, so church leaders should be aware of its likely implications. Culturally, those currently making up the Fourth and Fifth Agers will have had their world-views moulded by the uncertainties and hardships of the Second World War and its aftermath. But those currently in their Third Age will have been moulded by the revolutions of the 'Swinging Sixties' – this is the 'never had it so good' generation.

Churches will have to learn to cope with growing numbers of people with lesser physical ability, with different tastes in music, and with different ministry needs. In what practical ways can churches equip growing numbers of Christian grandparents (over 700,000 are attending church in 2015!), many of whom will spend part of their weeks looking after grandchildren. Should churches provide facilities especially for grandparents (and, increasingly, great-grandparents) – and help them to pass on the truths and values of the faith effectively?

The implications go on – and include concerns about patterns of financial giving, questions of access and transport needs, as well as considerations of retirement ages for those in leadership.

Elderly Evangelism

More elderly people may go to church than other age-groups, but there are yet many who do not go to church at all, and still need to be reached with the gospel. Nationally, 40% of Third Agers have never been to church. Organisations such as Outlook Trust are already devoted to reaching these groups, whilst many churches run Senior Alpha.
Like any other group of churchgoers, the elderly need to be befriended and enabled to join in suitable church activities. When Jesus said "The fields are white, ready to harvest", that included those 65 and over!

Comment

Monica Hill

We read daily in the newspapers about the world population 'explosion' and recognise the mass movement of peoples as a global issue. However, though the world population continues to grow - almost exponentially – we often view such statistics relatively and feel they do not affect us in our own country in any significant way. But most Western countries are facing huge changes in their national populations - not only in their racial composition but also in their age composition.

Moreover, the church (particularly in the traditional denominations) has a large and ever increasing percentage in the older age bracket. This presents a complex challenge to our thinking and understanding of God's purposes and all he is calling us to do.

Challenges

The analysis in this article raises a number of challenges for the church to which Christians need to respond. There may be others which you would like to add, or perhaps you can give examples of how you are responding to them - do post your comments below.

1. Rise of small groups: The ten-yearly Church Census is largely based upon Sunday church attendance – but we know of many older people who, having attended a particular church for much of their lives, now find fellowship and spiritual support in small groups. How can we recognise the large numbers of these when estimating numbers of older Christians in Britain?
2. Busy lives: Sunday observance, even for Christians, has reduced from a full day with at least two attendances at church to a maximum of one (except for the minister who can be expected to lead different services, of different kinds, in different places every hour!). Other activities crowd into our busy lives. Are we really giving enough time on this special day each week?
3. Commitment: Censuses used to include church membership, which indicated commitment to a particular branch of churchmanship or denomination. Is this no longer applicable – or even useful? How do we measure commitment these days?
4. Provision for the elderly: Resources are being poured in to attract children and young people - and rightly so - but are we giving as much attention to the other end of the age range?
5. Age segregation: Many congregations are still racially segregated, although bridges are being built – but far too many have only one or two age ranges attending. The challenge and joy of a wide family perspective is now often difficult to attain. I well remember taking a group of European leaders to visit a remarkable church plant and being greeted with "An answer to prayer – older people!" How can our churches be seen as a whole families of God's people, meeting the needs of all ages?
6. Learning and valuing: Can we find ways of ensuring that the generations value each other and build on the strengths evident at different ages, as well as the weaknesses? Is there a right use of the generation-to-generation experience?
7. Stereotypes: Far too often we stereotype the 'over 65s' as one group and limit the respective contributions that Third, Fourth and Fifth agers can make. Should we be re-assessing the 'army of the Lord'? Does this require a change of mindset?
8. Culture: Do we fail to build on the background, memories and cultures of those who are involved in our churches or groups? Do we mainly cater for churches of like-minded people - whether they are in their 20s or older? Do we expect all Christian communities to have the same culture?
9. Outreach: Are we outward-looking Christians – not only looking to the needs of others but increasingly aware of the opportunities for outreach – the importance of fulfilling the Great Commission? How natural is it for each of us, whatever our age, to share our faith with others?
10. Passing on the faith: Having held the baton, is the older generation ensuring that they pass the faith on to others? How can we encourage them to play their part in ensuring the continuance of Christianity in Britain?

Now it is over to you – for more questions and answers that can help others.

Sources

1 An expanded version of this paper is available This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

2 Office for National Statistics, Population Projections, given in 'UK Church Statistics', No 2, 2010-2020. Table 16.9, ADBC Publishers, Tonbridge, Kent, 2014.

3 Office for National Statistics, Population Trends, given in 'Religious Trends', No 4, 2003/2004. Table 1.4, Christian Research, Eltham, London 2004.

4 Eurostat Fertility Statistics.

5 Europe in Figures, Eurostat Yearbook 2008, Table SP12, p46.

6 Sigma, The Bulletin of European Statistics, 010-2008, p50.

7 UK Church Statistics, No 2, 2010-2020, ADBC Publishers, Tonbridge, Kent, 2014, p16.

For previous issues of this series on 'Changing Britain', click here.

Over the next few weeks we will use some recent surveys from the Brierley Consultancy to delve further into what God is saying to Britain. Each instalment will feature statistics on a different set of trends, followed by biblical analysis from Monica Hill.

Hard factual evidence drawn from different kinds of surveys can help Christians to ascertain exactly what, where and how our society is changing, and can equip them both to pray and to take action where necessary.

Christians should be alert to current trends and be prepared to act to bring things into alignment with the ordained will of God. While nothing can take place outside the sovereign will and knowledge of God, not all activities are God-ordained.

This week: The Rise of Secularism: YES, I have NO religion!

Monica Hill looks back:

In 1985, in the first issue of Prophecy Today, the message was an encouraging one: ‘I will Pour out My Spirit’ (Acts 2:17). Whilst this may still be relevant across other continents, in many parts of Europe Christianity is struggling; a more relevant message may well be the message to the church in Sardis: ‘Wake up and strengthen the things that remain’ (Rev 3:2). For many this has become a rear-guard defensive action, rather than a pro-active, progressive one.

The Overall World Picture

In his many writings in the early part of the last century, Kenneth Scott Latourette put the historical growth of Christianity from the first days of the early church into global perspective.¹ Each period of spectacular growth was followed by a period of decline until a new impetus came on the scene which led on to greater growth than had ever been known before. These cycles or waves of advance and retreat have always led the church onwards and upwards.

"From the first days of the early church, each period of spectacular growth was followed by a period of decline until a new impetus came on the scene which led on to greater growth than had ever been known before."

Global population has more than tripled in the last 100 years (from under 2 billion to 7 billion²). The growth of Christianity has roughly kept pace, being embraced by about a third of humanity.³ In the same time, however, Islam has been expanding much more rapidly, growing from 12% of the world’s population to 22%.⁴

Although Christians comprise just under a third of the world’s people, they form a majority of the population in 157 countries and territories, about two-thirds of all the countries and territories in the world.⁵ About 90% of Christians currently live in these majority-Christian countries, where Christian values are mostly accepted; only about 10% of Christians worldwide live as minorities, adapting their living and experiencing different levels of acceptance.

Half (48%) of all Christians in the world live in the 10 countries with the largest number of Christians, where Christianity is widely accepted and deeply established.⁶ Three of these are in the Americas (the United States, Brazil and Mexico), two are in Europe (Russia and Germany), two are in the Asia-Pacific region (the Philippines and China) and three are in sub-Saharan Africa (Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo and Ethiopia).

Movement of the Centre of Christianity⁷

Until 100 years ago, Europe had been the centre of global Christianity for a millennium: in 1910, about two-thirds of the world’s Christians were in Europe.⁸ In the 19th century Europe had also become the biggest missionary sending-continent (North America took over that baton in the 20th Century; time alone will tell who takes it on next).

Today, only about a quarter of all Christians live in Europe (26%). A plurality – more than a third – are now in the Americas (37%). About one in every four Christians lives in sub-Saharan Africa (24%), and about one-in-eight is found in Asia and the Pacific (13%). So whilst there are over 2 billion Christians of all ages around the world, no single continent or region can now claim indisputably to be the centre of global Christianity.

"Since 1910 Christianity has moved from being centred in Europe to being dispersed around the world, shifting from rich nations to poorer ones."

This dispersal also represents a general shift in Christianity away from rich nations towards poorer nations. Last century, the Global North (a short-hand for the wealthiest nations in the world, commonly defined as North America, Europe, Australia, Japan and New Zealand) contained more than four times as many Christians as the Global South (the rest of the world). Today, more than 1.3 billion Christians live in the Global South (61%), compared with about 860 million in the Global North (39%).⁹

Current areas of major growth: Africa and Asia-Pacific

The fastest growth in the number of Christians over the past century has been in Sub-Saharan Africa (a roughly 60-fold increase, from fewer than 9 million in 1910 to more than 516 million in 2010) and in the Asia-Pacific region (a roughly 10-fold increase, from about 28 million in 1910 to more than 285 million in 2010).¹⁰

"In the last century, Christianity has increased 60-fold in Sub-Saharan Africa, and 10-fold in Asia-Pacific."

Indonesia is the 4th most populous country in the world, behind China, India and USA.¹¹ Its population grew from 162m in 1985 to over 253m in 2014, and it still has the largest Muslim population in the world. However, Indonesia is also home to more Christians than all 20 countries in the Middle East/North Africa region combined. Since the bloody coup d’état in 1965 everyone has to be registered to one of six religions – namely Islam, Protestantism, Catholicism, Hinduism, Buddhism and Confucianism.¹²

Although the official records still show 88% as being nominally Muslim¹³ there has been a tremendous Spiritual Awakening since the 1990s. When we were there in 2001, reliable Christian sources were reporting that the rate of conversion of Muslims to Christianity was so great that the total number of Christians (both Catholic and Protestant) in the population was approaching 50%, but for political reasons the Government supressed this information.

Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia-Pacific now have a combined population of about 800 million Christians, roughly the same as the Americas. Five of the top 10 countries with the largest Christian populations are either in Africa (Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo and Ethiopia) or Asia-Pacific (Philippines and China).¹⁴

In a relatively short time, Africa has gone from having a majority of followers of indigenous, traditional religions, to being predominantly a continent of Christians and Muslims. Christians are now estimated to be 40% of the continent's population, with Muslims forming 45% - roughly divided between the South and the North, respectively.¹⁵

"In a relatively short time, Africa has gone from having a majority of followers of indigenous, traditional religions, to being predominantly a continent of Christians and Muslims."

Christianity is embraced by the majority of the population in most Southern African, Southeast African, and Central African states, and others in some parts of Northeast and West Africa. The Coptic Christians make up a significant minority in Egypt but the strong 1st century church of Tertullian in North Africa is struggling for survival.¹⁶ Nigeria now has more than twice as many Protestants (broadly defined to include Anglicans and independent churches) as Germany, the birthplace of the Protestant Reformation.¹⁷

Other growth areas: Latin America and China

Across the Atlantic, the majority of Latin Americans are Christians (90%), mostly Roman Catholics (Brazil has more than twice as many Catholics as Italy¹⁸).

However, membership in Protestant denominations is increasing, particularly in Brazil, Guatemala, El Salvador and Puerto Rico. Latin American Protestants numbered 64 million in 2000 (compared to 50,000 in 1990), with three-quarters of this total being Pentecostal and Charismatic.¹⁹ In the late 1990s, 8,000 Latin Americans were deserting the Catholic Church every day for Evangelical Protestantism.²⁰ Venezuela, which is 92% Catholic, officially recognised 15,000 evangelical churches in 2013.²¹

Finally, in China, after a hundred years of missionary effort there were only 100,000 believers at the time of the 1927 communist coup, followed by the prohibition of religion.²² Despite cruel persecution by the communist regime, until the 1990s the underground church grew and since then there has been a vast increase in the number of Christians and churches – so much so that by 2030 it is predicted there will be more Christians in China than in the whole of the United States.²³

"By 2030 it is predicted there will be more Christians in China than in the whole of the United States."

Areas of major decline, and the challenge from Islam

The most drastic recent declines in Christian populations have been in Syria and Iraq, where there have been significant ancient communities from the early church days. Though the region is often recognised as the birth place of Christianity, Christian communities are being obliterated there as the Islamic State becomes established.²⁴

Indeed, today the Middle East/North Africa has the lowest concentration of Christians (c.4% of the region’s population) and the smallest number of Christians (c.13 million) of any major geographic region.²⁵

Islam is now the world’s second largest religion after Christianity. Since 1985 and the first issue of Prophecy Today, Islam has increased by 25% in North America, by 142.35% in Europe and by 257.01% in Australia and Oceania / Pacific, with the global Muslim population growing at nearly twice the rate of non-Muslim populations.²⁶

According to these statistics, one in five people on the planet are Muslim. Whilst it is difficult to predict future trends, several speculators suggest that by the middle of this century Islam could have more adherents than Christianity.²⁷

What is happening in Britain?

According to the Daily Telegraph, the UK population grew from 56 million in 1985 to 64 million in 2015, with half of the increase being in the last 12 years and the UK now showing the fastest population growth in Europe.²⁸ Through the twin pressures of secularisation and immigration, the religious make-up of the UK has become extremely diverse. The 2011 Census showed that Islam and minority and alternative religions are steadily growing, whilst less than half of the British people believe in a God.²⁹

Christianity in Britain has suffered an immense general decline since the 1950s. Between 1979 and 2005, half of all Christians stopped going to church on a Sunday.³⁰ In 2006, Tearfund found that two thirds of the UK have no connection with any religion or church, even though 59.3% put their religion down as “Christian".³¹ Britain, once a proudly Christian country, is gradually being replaced with ‘post-Christendom’ and all the problems this brings.

  "Between 1979 and 2005, half of all British Christians stopped going to church on a Sunday."

It is, however, unlikely that a religious vacuum will remain for too long. Many of our cities, like Leicester, now have more mosques than churches. But recent news of a wave of Muslim converts to Christianity could signal good news for the future - is the church prepared for this?

In the last 30 years the UK church presence has fragmented into a number of smaller groupings and there has been a significant decline in traditional denominations with many church closures. The Christian presence would have drained much more quickly had new churches not been planted and established, and had a renewed emphasis not been put on taking the church into new areas with evangelistic outreaches.

"The Christian presence would have drained much more quickly had new churches not been planted and established"

Fresh Expressions³² working with the traditional churches has been one of the most successful ways of redefining church, with our personal involvement with the Christian Resources Exhibition and The Sharing Show resulting in publicity being given to the many new initiatives and the Love outreach.

Additionally, whereas in the 19th century Britain was a significant missionary-oriented country taking the Gospel to the ends of the earth, Christians from these countries are now coming here to re-evangelise our nation. Africa and Asia are leading the way. The Black Majority churches are now the fastest-growing in London,³³ and many ethnic-led Bible Colleges and Church Planting schools are also springing up.

What of the Hopes for Charismatic Renewal?

In the early 1980s the Charismatic and Pentecostal movements were at their height, not only in this country but also worldwide, and hopes ran high that Charismatic renewal would penetrate every sector of the church world-wide with new vitality and purpose.

During the intervening 30 years this movement has settled down in the UK and developed an ‘orthodoxy’, so it is seen now as just one aspect of a wider church scene. In many places this institutionalisation has hindered its growth, so that like the Church in Ephesus (Rev 2:4), it may have lost sight of its first love. Increasingly, therefore, all the messages to the churches in Revelation 2-3 are relevant to Christians in the UK today.

Is there any hope for the UK?

We must never give up hope that God is in control as he reveals more and more of his truth and love. Thirty years ago Prophecy Today had links with churches and Christians in many different parts of the world which led to a sharing of their insights and experiences within the pages of the magazine. It is hoped that this will continue in future, so that Prophecy Today will offer people a grounded, biblical understanding of the trends discussed here.

Since 1985 new technology and increased travel and migration has opened more doors to the Gospel within and between countries. Pray that this will continue to fulfil the Great Commission that Christ gave to his disciples in Matthew 28:18-20, which has never been rescinded.

References

1 Latourette, K S, 1953. History of Christianity. Vol 1 & 11, Harper and Row.

2 World population is currently increasing at 1.21% per year and is predicted to continue to grow well into the 22nd Century but at much reduced rates.

3 Growth of Religion (Christianity), Wikipedia.

4 Growth of Religion (Islam), Wikipedia.

5 Pew Research Center, 2012. Religion & Public Life Project.

6 Ibid.

7 Unless otherwise stated, all statistics in this section are taken from the executive summary of the Pew Research Center’s Global Christianity: A Report on the Size and Distribution of the World’s Christian Population.

8 Historical estimate by the Center for the Study of Global Christianity.

9 The total population of the Global South is about 4.5 times greater than the population of the Global North.

10 See note 5.

11 Demographics of Indonesia: Religions, Wikipedia.

12 Religion in Indonesia, New World Encyclopedia.

13 International Religious Freedom: Indonesia. UNHCR report, 2009.

14 See note 5.

15 Encyclopædia Britannica, 2003. Encyclopædia Britannica Inc, p306

16 Coptic Christianity, Got Questions.

17 See note 5, also http://www.history.com/topics/reformation

18 See note 5.

19 Allen, J L, 2006. The dramatic growth of evangelicals in Latin America, NCR Online, 18 August.

20 Study commissioned in the late 1990s by CELAM, the federation of Latin American Catholic bishops' conferences. Allen, J L, 2006. The Pentecostal phenomenon in Latin America, NCR Online, 20 December.

21 Martinez, J, 2013. Venezuelan Gov’t to Legally Recognize 15,000 Evangelical Churches, Christian Post, 11 September.

22 Anderlini, J, 2014. The rise of Christianity in China, FT Magazine, 17 November.

23 Phillips, T, 2014. China on course to become world’s most Christian nation in 15 years, The Telegraph, 19 April.

24 Nazemroaya, M D, 2014. Wiping out the Christians of Syria and Iraq to remap the Middle East: Prerequisite to a clash of civilizations? Strategic Culture Foundation, Centre for Research on Globalization, 30 July.

25 See note 5.

26 Tsang, S, 2011. Muslim Populations in the World, Diversity Statistics.

27 Ontario Consultants on Religious Tolerance, 2001. Growth rates of Christianity and Islam.

28 Bingham J, 2014. UK has had fastest growing population in Europe for a decade, 26 June.

29 Crabtree, V, 2012. Religion in the UK: Diversity, Trends and Decline.

30 See note 29.

31 Tearfund, 2007. Churchgoing in the UK report.

32 www.freshexpressions.org.uk

33 Brierley Consultancy, The London Church Census, June 2013.