The slippery slope of the new assisted dying Bill

Our latest instalment on 'Changing Britain?' looks at ageing trends in the church and what we can do about them. Following the statistics is a comment from Monica Hill.

The Ageing Church

Re-printed from Brierley Consultancy's FutureFirst, June 2014 issue, with kind permission.¹

The latest (2011) Population Census confirmed what has been known for some time – British society is ageing. A fifth, 22.3%, were 60 years of age or over in 2011, and this percentage has increased by 1.4% in 10 years.

The basic reason for this increasing proportion of older people is that the population is not being balanced by an increasing proportion of younger people. In 2001 the proportion of the population under 20 was 25%; in 2011 it was 24% - a small percentage difference but quite large in real terms. Projections by the Office for National Statistics paint the same trend for the decades ahead.²

An age crisis is not likely to descend in the short term, partly because of the continuing numbers of relatively young immigrants who come to the UK, and partly because the number of babies being born to this group (Total Fertility Rate, TFR) is relatively high. The population balances if the TFR = 2.1; in recent years in Britain it has been 1.9, but in years gone by it has been much lower, such as 1.7 in 1996.³

Greying Europe

This ageing problem is spread across not just Britain but most of the world. Women in the Southern World are wanting fewer children, and contraceptives are becoming more widely available and affordable. In Europe, where abortion is more of a factor, the overall TFR averaged 1.5 between 2005 and 2010.⁴ In Poland it was just 1.2, and 1.3 in Germany, Greece, Italy and 8 other European countries.⁵

These downward trends could take 80-100 years to adjust, hence the importance of immigration for these countries. Meanwhile, an increased proportion of elderly people increases demand for medical care, whilst decreasing income tax revenue to pay for it. According to Jerome Vignon, Director of the EEC's Directorate for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities, this trend will affect almost every aspect of life, from consumption to family life to public policy.⁶

Ageing Church?Figure 1: Sunday Church attendance in England by age group 1980 – 2010 and estimated to 2025.

Whilst systematic data is not yet available, it is likely that the church in Britain is caught up with this broader ageing process. This paper focuses on statistics available for England from the four Church Censuses, as England represents the major demographic component of the UK. Figure 1 illustrates numbers of churchgoers by age-group, from 1980 and projected to 2025, using figures from UK Church Statistics.⁷

It is obvious, even to the casual observer of the world scene, that the English church has an ageing problem, and this is a much more acute one than that facing the demographers across Europe! This is because the number of young people in church is decreasing rapidly – there has been a 43% drop in those under 20 between 1980 and 2000, and a projected 45% drop between 2000 and 2020.

Consequently, the proportion of those at the other end of the scale is increasing – and gathering momentum. More than 1/3 of churchgoers in 2015 are 65 or over, and this is likely to increase to 42% by 2025.

Third, Fourth and Fifth Agers

Churchgoers aged 65 and over can be sub-divided into three groups: the Third Agers (65-74), Fourth Agers (75-84) and Fifth Agers (85+). These groups differ markedly in health, ability, availability and outlook.

1. The largest cohort of churchgoers is currently the Third Agers (65-74), who generally enjoy strong health, high energy levels, large pensions and money to spend on pleasure and leisure. However, whilst they have long made up the largest group of church attendees, this group is neither growing nor shrinking at an obvious rate.
2. By contrast, total numbers of Fourth Agers are on the increase (+16% 2000-2020, then +19% 2020-2025). They are usually grandparents, may have lost a spouse and may need help getting to church.
3. Numbers of churchgoers in their Fifth Age increased almost 4-fold in this period, from 47,000 in 2000 to over 170,000 by 2025 (+264%). They are often confined to the home, experiencing an increasing dependency and only attend church on special occasions.

This is gradually changing the demographics of the 65+ age group in church. The proportion of those attending in their Third Age is dropping – from 62% in 2000 to 48% in 2025 - and that of those in their Fifth Age is projected to increase from 6% to 16% in the same time.

Implications for Church Leaders

As the 'greying' of the church gathers momentum, so church leaders should be aware of its likely implications. Culturally, those currently making up the Fourth and Fifth Agers will have had their world-views moulded by the uncertainties and hardships of the Second World War and its aftermath. But those currently in their Third Age will have been moulded by the revolutions of the 'Swinging Sixties' – this is the 'never had it so good' generation.

Churches will have to learn to cope with growing numbers of people with lesser physical ability, with different tastes in music, and with different ministry needs. In what practical ways can churches equip growing numbers of Christian grandparents (over 700,000 are attending church in 2015!), many of whom will spend part of their weeks looking after grandchildren. Should churches provide facilities especially for grandparents (and, increasingly, great-grandparents) – and help them to pass on the truths and values of the faith effectively?

The implications go on – and include concerns about patterns of financial giving, questions of access and transport needs, as well as considerations of retirement ages for those in leadership.

Elderly Evangelism

More elderly people may go to church than other age-groups, but there are yet many who do not go to church at all, and still need to be reached with the gospel. Nationally, 40% of Third Agers have never been to church. Organisations such as Outlook Trust are already devoted to reaching these groups, whilst many churches run Senior Alpha.
Like any other group of churchgoers, the elderly need to be befriended and enabled to join in suitable church activities. When Jesus said "The fields are white, ready to harvest", that included those 65 and over!

Comment

Monica Hill

We read daily in the newspapers about the world population 'explosion' and recognise the mass movement of peoples as a global issue. However, though the world population continues to grow - almost exponentially – we often view such statistics relatively and feel they do not affect us in our own country in any significant way. But most Western countries are facing huge changes in their national populations - not only in their racial composition but also in their age composition.

Moreover, the church (particularly in the traditional denominations) has a large and ever increasing percentage in the older age bracket. This presents a complex challenge to our thinking and understanding of God's purposes and all he is calling us to do.

Challenges

The analysis in this article raises a number of challenges for the church to which Christians need to respond. There may be others which you would like to add, or perhaps you can give examples of how you are responding to them - do post your comments below.

1. Rise of small groups: The ten-yearly Church Census is largely based upon Sunday church attendance – but we know of many older people who, having attended a particular church for much of their lives, now find fellowship and spiritual support in small groups. How can we recognise the large numbers of these when estimating numbers of older Christians in Britain?
2. Busy lives: Sunday observance, even for Christians, has reduced from a full day with at least two attendances at church to a maximum of one (except for the minister who can be expected to lead different services, of different kinds, in different places every hour!). Other activities crowd into our busy lives. Are we really giving enough time on this special day each week?
3. Commitment: Censuses used to include church membership, which indicated commitment to a particular branch of churchmanship or denomination. Is this no longer applicable – or even useful? How do we measure commitment these days?
4. Provision for the elderly: Resources are being poured in to attract children and young people - and rightly so - but are we giving as much attention to the other end of the age range?
5. Age segregation: Many congregations are still racially segregated, although bridges are being built – but far too many have only one or two age ranges attending. The challenge and joy of a wide family perspective is now often difficult to attain. I well remember taking a group of European leaders to visit a remarkable church plant and being greeted with "An answer to prayer – older people!" How can our churches be seen as a whole families of God's people, meeting the needs of all ages?
6. Learning and valuing: Can we find ways of ensuring that the generations value each other and build on the strengths evident at different ages, as well as the weaknesses? Is there a right use of the generation-to-generation experience?
7. Stereotypes: Far too often we stereotype the 'over 65s' as one group and limit the respective contributions that Third, Fourth and Fifth agers can make. Should we be re-assessing the 'army of the Lord'? Does this require a change of mindset?
8. Culture: Do we fail to build on the background, memories and cultures of those who are involved in our churches or groups? Do we mainly cater for churches of like-minded people - whether they are in their 20s or older? Do we expect all Christian communities to have the same culture?
9. Outreach: Are we outward-looking Christians – not only looking to the needs of others but increasingly aware of the opportunities for outreach – the importance of fulfilling the Great Commission? How natural is it for each of us, whatever our age, to share our faith with others?
10. Passing on the faith: Having held the baton, is the older generation ensuring that they pass the faith on to others? How can we encourage them to play their part in ensuring the continuance of Christianity in Britain?

Now it is over to you – for more questions and answers that can help others.

Sources

1 An expanded version of this paper is available This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

2 Office for National Statistics, Population Projections, given in 'UK Church Statistics', No 2, 2010-2020. Table 16.9, ADBC Publishers, Tonbridge, Kent, 2014.

3 Office for National Statistics, Population Trends, given in 'Religious Trends', No 4, 2003/2004. Table 1.4, Christian Research, Eltham, London 2004.

4 Eurostat Fertility Statistics.

5 Europe in Figures, Eurostat Yearbook 2008, Table SP12, p46.

6 Sigma, The Bulletin of European Statistics, 010-2008, p50.

7 UK Church Statistics, No 2, 2010-2020, ADBC Publishers, Tonbridge, Kent, 2014, p16.

For previous issues of this series on 'Changing Britain', click here.