It’s been a long, tough week. So much has happened in Israel over the past seven days, hour by hour.

How and why?

Most of us – and not least Israeli authorities themselves – have had to put on hold the questions that were so prominent in our minds when the news first broke through of hundreds of Hamas terrorists having breached, in multiple places, the security fence surrounding Gaza, and rampaging across southern townships, causing carnage that the wider world is being forced to gradually come to terms with.

The questions that so burned in many of our minds were, ‘How did Israel and its allies not see this coming?’, ‘Why was security around Gaza so lax?’ and ‘How did it take Israeli forces so long to respond to the crisis?’

“It is almost inconceivable how they missed this,” said a former CIA agent of 26 years’ service, where he specialised in counter-terrorism and the Middle East. “I’m truly astonished for something of this magnitude to go down and for the Israelis to have no clue that this is about to happen”, said Colin Clarke of the Soufan Centre, which offers research and analysis on global security. “I’m just speechless.”

Aura of invincibility

Israel is known globally as something of ‘technology powerhouse’, and more particularly, for its invention of exquisite, world-class intelligence collection and analysis capabilities. The sophisticated barbed-wire topped fence separating Gaza from Israel – a $1.1 billion project that took over three years to complete – is replete with cameras, ground-motion sensors and regular army patrols. Ordinarily, just one person from Gaza getting close to the border would be intercepted and neutralized long before they could do any damage.

Ordinarily, just one person from Gaza getting close to the border would be intercepted and neutralized long before they could do any damage.

Surveillance drones routinely buzz over Gaza. Intelligence agencies are ceaselessly at work within the enclave, while Israel has invested billions and billions of dollars on blocking Hamas’ notorious tunnels.

In the past, Israel has carried out precisely timed assassinations of militant leaders – sometimes while they slept in their bedrooms – knowing all their movements intimately. Sometimes these have been done with drone strikes – a GPS tracker having been covertly placed on an individual's car; sometimes they has even used exploding mobile phones. Israel has gradually gained an aura of invincibility.

Taken by surprise

And yet, the country was taken completely by surprise in Saturday’s Hamas air, sea and land incursion. It is apparent that U.S. intelligence agencies did not see the attack coming either, nor did friendly Arab states such as Jordan, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. The Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported that senior Israeli military officers and officials had assessed, as recently as last week, that Hamas wanted to avoid a full-blown conflict with Israel. Failure to foresee the coordinated attack has drawn several historical parallels – not least with 9/11, and with the outbreak of the Yom Kippur War in 1973.

The fact that it was Shabbat, and a Jewish holiday, coinciding with Simshat Torah and the close of Sukkot (Feast of Tabernacles), should not have made any difference to security operations, which ought always to be on high alert – indeed, more so when the enemy might think it laxer – and given the precedent of the Yom Kippur attacks.

 Failure to foresee the coordinated attack has drawn several historical parallels – not least with 9/11, and with the outbreak of the Yom Kippur War in 1973.

It appears that Israel believed it was containing Hamas and maintaining stability in the impoverished Gaza Strip by preserving around 18,000 work permits in Israel for Palestinian workers. More so, Hamas used an unprecedented intelligence tactic to mislead Israel into believing it was too war weary to fight. The terror group had refrained from military operations against Israel for several years, despite this drawing public criticism from e.g. supporters in the West Bank.

Masterful planning

To prepare for and carry out such a coordinated, complex attack involving the stockpiling and firing of thousands of rockets, right under the noses of the Israelis, clearly took extraordinary levels of planning and training by Hamas.

The coordination of missile strikes, the use of drones, and hundreds of terrorists attacking pre-selected targets showed preparation and training well beyond that displayed by perhaps any terror group before, including Isis. The operation was conducted by a highly sophisticated and efficient organisation – not just a few radicalised ex-soldiers.

Tight levels of security were essential. One retired Israeli general said Hamas had ‘gone back to the Stone Age’ to avoid their plans being detected. Militants apparently avoided using phones and computers, and conducted their business in rooms specially guarded from technological espionage, or went underground altogether. Even many Hamas leaders were unaware of the plans and, while training the fighters deployed in Saturday’s assault, apparently had no inkling of the exact purpose of the exercises.

 The operation was conducted by a highly sophisticated and efficient organisation – not just a few radicalised ex-soldiers.

To many, it looked more like a state special forces attack, including the tactics and equipment used. For example, immediately on breaking through the fence, Hamas commandos attacked the first Israeli defence lines, raiding soldiers sleeping quarters and seizing bases and the headquarters of Israel’s military operation for southern Gaza. Another unit was used to identify the positions and movements of Israeli soldiers and to monitor their headquarters, while drones were deployed to attack observation towers and to survey the border area.

Given such sophistication in operations, fingers have pointed to links with Iran –which burns with a passion to see the obliteration of Israel – but Iran has vehemently denied any involvement (as they’d have good reason to do even if they were complicit).

Multiple reasons

As well as being fooled that Hamas had no intention of going on the offensive, a plethora of other (ultimately unacceptable) reasons have been proffered as to why Israel was caught napping:

• Netanyahu’s government had become distracted over many months by the democratic protests against new laws regarding the judiciary - which saw active opposition even from the security establishment, and which led to many in the national defence forces refuse to be on duty – effectively striking.
• There were rivalries between Israel's various intelligence arms.
• Many felt Netanyahu’s government were pursuing a policy that openly ignored the existence and rights of Palestinians.
• Israel had turned its focus away from Hamas as it pushed for a deal to normalise relations with Saudi Arabia.
• With increased tensions in the West Bank over recent months, Israeli officials had become more focused on that enclave.
• Many Israeli forces were on leave.
• Some of Israel’s allies were of the opinion that Hamas had acquired ‘more responsibility’ of late.

More sinister still

But some remain unconvinced by the above arguments. They find it outrageous and quite inconceivable that Israel could have been caught off guard by such a large-scale and sophisticated attack.

 Many felt Netanyahu’s government were pursuing a policy that openly ignored the existence and rights of Palestinians.

Not all of Hamas’ planning or training was covertly engaged in, they point out. For example, the construction of a mock Israeli settlement in Gaza, which fighters practised storming, would easily have been observed by Israeli intelligence. Other videos clearly show the hang glider unit involved in Saturday’s attack, training for the assault.

And what of intelligence from Egypt, warning of a big attack, which Israel ignored? The head of the US foreign affairs committee said that a warning was given, but it is unclear ‘at what level’, supporting claims reported from Egyptian sources. Then there’s the fact that Israeli forces took an incredible five hours to arrive in the southern Israel region where Hamas militants had already massacred hundreds of innocent lives – including women, children and the elderly – taking dozens more as hostages.

All this confirms to some that something more sinister was at play; they see it, rather, as part of a wider, nefarious, globalist plan. Such theories, however, raise as many questions as they answer.

Questions remain

None of the above reasoning changes the reality – Hamas’s actions of last Saturday signified a thoroughly shocking, utterly unacceptable and almost incomprehensible breach of both Israel's intelligence and its security operations. Well over a thousand Israeli citizens, and as many Palestinians, have already paid the ultimate price for that neglect – while the wider reverberations are proving global in nature.

 Well over a thousand Israeli citizens, and as many Palestinians, have already paid the ultimate price for that neglect – while the wider reverberations are global in nature.

Ultimately, a series of urgent questions now faces Israeli intelligence chiefs, among them, how Hamas managed to amass such a large stockpile of rockets over several months without detection, and why it took Israeli forces take so long to react.

There is still much to learn about what precisely Israeli intelligence knew, and what warning signs were missed. In time there will inevitably be demands for an inquiry.

But right now, clearly, Israel has other, more pressing priorities.