Should the World Economic Forum be the first port of call for world leaders seeking direction?

The World Economic Forum...

A few years ago, when I was still working for an IT Services company, our Chief Executive Officer (CEO) communicated on an internal blog that he was going to Davos. I naturally assumed this was his annual winter skiing holiday. It then transpired that he was going to Switzerland ‘on business’ to attend the annual World Economic Forum.

Further blog entries recounted his meetings and discussions with world leaders in the business, economic and political fields. They had all made their annual pilgrimage to Davos with a media circus in tow. As employees of the company, working hard to complete our projects on time and to provide excellent service to customers, we naturally assumed that our company was being so well managed that our CEO’s absence would not be missed.

The World Economic Forum of January 2014 at Davos did not deliver on its expectations as it failed to predict: the rise of the Islamic State, the Ebola epidemic in West Africa, the eruption of the crisis in Ukraine and the stand-off in Hong Kong. All these are significant events with global repercussions. The victory for the far-left, anti-austerity, Syriza party in Greece spells trouble for the Euro, and its ties to the Kremlin pose a threat to stability across Europe. The sudden fall in the price of crude oil, from $120 to just $60 a barrel in six months, was the biggest economic shock of 2014 and the fallout is expected to be profound and long-lasting.

"The World Economic Forum at Davos did not deliver on its expectations"

The 2015 Forum started with rather more realistic expectations:

What is clear is that we are confronted by profound political, economic, social and, above all, technological transformations. They are altering long-standing assumptions about our prospects, resulting in an entirely ‘new global context’ for decision-making.¹

‘Black Swan’ Events

The unpredictable nature of the economy and its economic outcomes are now being compared to ‘Black Swan’ events. Before the colonisation of Australia it was an irrefutable fact, based on observation and historical data that all swans were white. The expression ‘Black Swan’ relates to something impossible or highly improbable which turns conventional wisdom on its head.

Donald Rumsfeld, the former United States Secretary of Defense, said:

there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns; the ones we don't know we don't know.²

It is these ‘unknown unknowns’ and unpredictable economic events that are close cousins of the ‘Black Swans’.

For instance, recent crude oil price falls would have been expected to help many economies by reducing fuel costs, reducing inflation and helping businesses to grow. However, less predictably, oil producers have instead found their revenue cut and governments are having to borrow more to balance their books. Oil companies in the UK are speaking of job losses in the industry.

Revelation

The book of Revelation seems to foretell a sudden collapse of the world economy. “The merchants of the earth will weep and mourn because no one buys their cargoes any more” (Rev 18:11) and “in one hour such great wealth has been brought to ruin” (Rev 18:17). Earlier generations would have been puzzled as to how this could happen. But now, with global satellite communications, complex IT systems and fast networks, the global markets will start to respond to events within minutes.

Biblical Prophecy

What is clear and certain? Do we need to go to Davos for the World Economic Forum? The Apostle Peter says in 2 Peter 1:19 “we have the word of the prophets made more certain and you will do well to pay attention to it as to a lamp shining in a dark place, until the day dawns and the morning star rises in your hearts”. Many Biblical prophecies have already been fulfilled exactly and in detail; Jesus Himself fulfilled over 300 Old Testament prophecies. Some well know examples are his birth in Bethlehem (prophesied in Micah 5:2) by a divinely arranged census from the Roman Emperor, and his triumphant entry into Jerusalem riding on a colt (prophesied in Zechariah 9:9).

So we can have complete confidence in the prophetic word. Those Biblical prophecies yet to be fulfilled relate mainly to the Second Coming of our Lord Jesus- we look forward to their glorious fulfilment. God’s word is a light for us in these dark times: a light to illuminate each step of our way, lighting the way for our feet to help us make immediate decisions, as well as providing guidance for the path ahead. This explains the nature of worldwide situations, where evil seems rampant.

"God’s word is a light for us in these dark times: a light to illuminate each step of our way"

In this way we are not deceived, but are able to pray effectively. Biblical prophecy is not just relevant to the end of the New Testament only, but right up to our Lord's return. When the participants gather together in Davos for the 2016 World Economic Forum to examine the ‘new global context’, they may be well advised to prayerfully seek the ‘wisdom that comes from above’ (Jam 3:17). In the meantime, we are encouraged to pray for our leaders (1 Tim 2:1-4).

References

1 World Economic Forum website

2 Rumsfeld, D, 2002. Defense Department Briefing.