Is this it? Is a major war inevitable in the Middle East? Could it drag in Western nations?

Reverberations

Fears are certainly mounting. David Cameron, UK foreign minister, headed swiftly to Israel to try and calm tensions following Iran’s attack on Israel with hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles last weekend. Joe Biden urged restraint, opining that Israel should “take the win”. Countries the world over were joining in, trying to prevent further escalation. Netanyahu was, understandably, in no mood to take this advice on board, as witnessed by Israel’s retaliatory strikes this morning (Friday). 

Financial markets have certainly wobbled somewhat, as might be expected, with a significant drop occurring in the FTSE shortly after Israel vowed to retaliate, and another as it followed through. Curiously, it’s private, rather than institutional, investors that are most worried, as it appears to be they that are pushing up the price of gold to record highs, as people are fearful of serious economic volatility. Hikes in the gold price have occurred following each incident in the Middle East, just as they did following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Shadow war

The latest actions, are, of course, the outplaying of a shadow war that has been going on between Israel and Iran for decades. The ‘usefulness’ of the weekend’s attack has been to highlight this to those people who have had their head in the sand for so long – and this has galvanised some of the waning support for Israel since the prolonged war on Hamas and its terrible effect on the citizens of Gaza. (Of course, some people have already suggested that Netanyahu, Israel’s president, precipitated this particular crisis in order to hang on to power – something that they say would not be out of character for him.)

 Netanyahu was, understandably, in no mood to take this advice on board, as witnessed by Israel’s retaliatory strikes.

Nevertheless, Iran has been attacking Israel for many years, though predominantly through its proxies – Hamas, Hezbollah, and more recently the Houthis – with the October 7 pogrom in Israel bringing this to a new level. 

As a good few commentators are now pointing out, this is bringing the world to a juncture in which the autocratic nations – Russia, China, North Korea and Iran, in particular – are forming a new ‘axis of evil’ – one that threatens the democracies of the ‘West’. Those democracies, are, commonly, somewhat weakened by internal, ideological conflict, and are in no shape, psychologically or militarily, to confront the dangers – hence all the prevaricating and attempts at ‘de-escalation’.

Scripture

Can we know what God is doing in all this? Personally, I can make no claims to direct words from God, and anything I write on this subject is tentative.

But ever since October 7th, the prophecy in Ezekiel 38 and 39, and corresponding verses in Revelation, have been one of the lenses through which I have viewed this conflict. Of course, interpretations of biblical eschatology vary substantially, and some would, understandably, put this conflict at the end of a one-thousand-year direct reign of the Prince of Peace, following His return. But we won’t understand completely until He returns, so until then, we must simply watch and pray, acknowledging our limited understanding.

 But we won’t understand completely until He returns, so until then, we must simply watch and pray, acknowledging our limited understanding.

What is curious in Ezekiel 38 and 39 is that it describes more distant nations attacking Israel, not its immediate neighbours, who were the ones involved in the various twentieth century wars of 1948, 1967 and 1973. We see specifically Iran (Persia) listed as one of these nations. The others are slightly harder to pin down, and there is some debate as to which nations are involved, but they probably include Turkey, and Sudan; with the main focus on Gog/Magog (Russia – most likely) being hooked and pulled into attacking Israel.

Interestingly, we see the beginnings of the attack as one in which the coalition “will invade a land of unwalled villages… attack a peaceful and unsuspecting people – all of them living without walls and without gates and bars… plunder and loot … the resettled ruins and the people gathered from the nations, rich in livestock and goods, living at the centre of the land.” (Ezek 38:10-12)

Though it’s a push to say that Israel was entirely without walls and gates and bars, it fits with the essence of what the kibbutzim were – peaceful, cooperative communities, ones which sought to both promote and to live in peace in every way. This ‘invasion’ was, of course, orchestrated by Iran’s proxy, the terrorists of Hamas, quite possibly with the help of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Neighbours

Ezekiel 38:4 says, of Gog (Russia?): “I will turn you around, put hooks in your jaws and bring you out with your whole army—your horses, your horsemen fully armed”. Just this week, I had to help a duck trapped on a fishing line because of a fishhook in its beak. The poor thing could not move away from where the line had trapped it. A hook through the jaw is a descriptive way of saying that Gog has no choice but to do as forced.

Because of the war in Ukraine, Russia is now heavily reliant on Iran, particularly for its supply of drones and other weapons. Yet it still has soldiers aplenty.

How could Russia be forced into attacking Israel? Because of the war in Ukraine, Russia is now heavily reliant on Iran, particularly for its supply of drones and other weapons. Yet it still has soldiers aplenty. Should the war escalate further between Iran and Israel, could we see Iran calling in the massive favour that Russia owes her, and request a force to come from the north and support it to attack Israel? It could do so by threatening to withhold its drone supplies that Russia is so reliant on in its fight with Ukraine.

As for the other possible countries, Sudan, of course, has a rather tentative peace agreement with Israel, but it is not yet ratified due to its own internal conflict, and it is one that is widely opposed by its people. Turkey is as yet in NATO, but has been notably resistant to its fellow members’ plans – under Erdogan, it is more sympathetic to Russia and its allies.

Yet, in contrast, some of Israel’s more immediate neighbours – those not included in the Ezekiel 38 list – have come to a more stable peace with Israel in recent years, particularly through Trump’s orchestrating of the Abraham Accords (through his son-in-law, Jared Kushner). Fascinatingly, we see, with last weekend’s attacks, protection given directly or indirectly to Israel by Jordan, whose defences shot down many of the missiles, as well as by Saudi Arabia, who at a minimum provided the US with airspace to assist with the defence.

Half-hearted

The other curious thing about the Ezekiel prophecy is the somewhat wishy-washy statement from what looks to be Israel’s allies to the coalition of aggressors – “Have you come to plunder? Have you gathered your hordes to loot, to carry off silver and gold, to take away livestock and goods and to seize much plunder?” (Ezek 38:13)

 This looks to be an ineffectual attempt to avert war, in the way we see Israel’s allies (including the UK and the US) acting currently – a desire to avoid getting overly involved, whilst expressing sympathy, and offering limited support.

This looks to be an ineffectual attempt to avert war, in the way we see Israel’s allies (including the UK and the US) acting currently – a desire to avoid getting overly involved, whilst expressing sympathy, and offering limited support. Some commentators see the ‘villages’ or ‘young lions’ of Tarshish to be the West (for reasons that I won’t explain here); Sheba and Dedan probably refer to Saudi Arabia.

Priorities

If this is how the scenario plays out – if we truly are seeing the outworkings of Ezekiel’s prophecy (and if the prophecy of Armageddon in Revelation 16 is an overlapping one with this, rather than a separate event) then it’s certainly possible that we may see Jesus return in the near future.

Do we know that as a fact? Clearly not. Our main focus now must be on what it always should be, sharing the good news of Jesus with those around us – seeking to bring God’s kingdom everywhere that we can. And we must pray for everyone involved in current events.

Many of us know to pray for Israel – as we are instructed in Scripture to pray for the peace in Jerusalem. The people of Gaza too must not be forgotten as the conflict widens.

Iran is a country led by fanatical tyrants, who do not wish to compromise with either the outside world or its own people.

But, not the least, we must also be praying for the people of Iran. This is a land filled with many secret believers in Jesus, following one of the biggest revivals to occur anywhere in the world in recent decades. We recall that this is also a land in which a brutal crackdown came on women and children and others demonstrating for liberty just a year ago.

Iran is a country led by fanatical tyrants, who do not wish to compromise with either the outside world or its own people. These tyrannical overlords have been attempting to assassinate dissidents even as far afield as our own country, and influencing Islamic protests here. Many in Iran are actually wishing for the defeat of its own leaders – even rallying behind Israel and the IDF.

We cannot be sure what these current tensions will hold for the world – but we can pray, particularly for all the people caught up in a conflict they have not chosen.

And we must pray, as Jesus taught us, “Let Your kingdom come; Your will be done.”